NCAA POWER INDEX CALCULATION METHOD
Step 5 - Count Losses, and Check Wins
Once the wins and losses are sorted, add up the Game Ratings and Game Values of the losses to obtain a Total Game Rating and a Total Game Value, then calculate
the team's Current NPI by dividing the Total Game Rating by the Total Game Value.
Also have a Counted Wins value, which starts at zero.
If the team has no losses, the Total Game Rating, Total Game Value, and Current NPI all begin at zero.
Once this is done, check each win one at a time, in the order determined in Step 4.
Calculate the (Total Game Rating + the game's Game Rating) / (Total Game Value + the game's Game Value) value.
If this is greater than or equal to the Current NPI, then add the game's Game Rating to the Total Game Rating, add the game's Game Value to both the Total Game Value and Counted Wins values,
and recalculate Current NPI = the new Total Game Rating / the new Total Game Value.
If it is less than than the Current NPI, then:
- If the Counted Wins value + the game's Game Value is less than or equal to the Minimum Wins Dial value, then perform the same procedure as if
the calculated value was greater than the Current NPI, even though it will cause the Current NPI to go down;
- If the Counted Wins value (without adding the game's Game Value) is greater than or equal to the Minimum Wins Dial value, then skip this game,
as it would be a win that caused the NPI to go down after the minimum number of wins have been counted;
- Otherwise, we need to add a partial amount of this game - the fraction to use is (the Minimum Wins Dial value - the Counted Wins value) / the game's Game Value.
For example, if the Minimum Wins Dial value is 5, the Counted Wins is 4.4, and the game's Game Value is 0.9, then the fraction is (5 - 4.4) / 0.9, which is 2/3.
Multiply the game's Game Rating and Game Value by this fraction before adding them to Total Game Rating, Total Game Value, and Counted Wins; you will note that
Counted Wins now equals the Minimum Wins Dial value. Recalculate Current NPI = Total Game Rating / Total Game Value.
Example
Going back to William Paterson's 2025 football schedule:
Start by summing the Game Rating and Game Value values of the losses:
Total Game Rating: 275.842562
Total Game Value: 8
Current NPI = 275.842652 / 8 = 34.480320
Add the wins one at a time, in order:
- The win against Castleton has a Game Rating of 56.993994 and a Game Value of 0.9
(Total Game Rating + game Game Rating) / (Total Game Value + game Game Value) = (275.842562 + 56.993994) / (8 + 0.9) = 332.836556 / 8.9 = 37.397366
This is greater than 34.480320, so include the win; Total Game Rating is now 332.836556, Total Game Value is now 8.9, Counted Wins = 0 + 0.9 = 0.9,
and Current NPI is now 37.397366.
- The win against Moravian has a Game Rating of 69.535858 and a Game Value of 1.1
(Total Game Rating + game Game Rating) / (Total Game Value + game Game Value) = (332.836556 + 69.535858) / (8.9 + 1.1) = 402.372414 / 10 = 40.237241
This is greater than 37.397366, so include the win; Total Game Rating is now 402.372414, Total Game Value is now 10, Counted Wins = 0.9 + 1.1 = 2,
and Current NPI is now 40.237241.
As another example - this one demonstrating a "partially added win" - here is Mount Union's 2025 football values at the start of Pass 1:
| Opponent | Round 0
Rating | SOS | Record | QWB | Game
Value | Game
Rating |
|---|
| Grove City | 57.308463 | 34.385078 | 40 | 0.827116 | 1.1 | 82.733413 |
| Otterbein | 57.159682 | 34.295809 | 40 | 0.789921 | 0.9 | 67.577157 |
| Marietta | 54.753555 | 32.852133 | 40 | 0.188389 | 1.1 | 80.344574 |
| Muskingum | 54.520574 | 32.712344 | 40 | 0.130143 | 0.9 | 65.558238 |
| Heidelberg | 52.918602 | 31.751161 | 40 | 0 | 1.1 | 78.926277 |
| Wheaton IL | 52.673797 | 31.604278 | 40 | 0 | 0.9 | 64.44385 |
| Wilmington OH | 51.497358 | 30.898415 | 40 | 0 | 1.1 | 77.988257 |
| Ohio Northern | 49.279094 | 29.567456 | 40 | 0 | 0.9 | 62.61071 |
| Baldwin-Wallace | 46.437031 | 27.862219 | 40 | 0 | 1.1 | 74.648441 |
| Capital | 46.283255 | 27.769953 | 40 | 0 | 0.9 | 60.992958 |
Set Counted Wins to zero.
Since there are no losses, the Game Rating Total, Game Value Total, and Current NPI are all zero.
Check each win, in order:
Grove City: (0 + 82.733413) / (0 + 1.1) = 75.212194 > 0, so add 82.733413 to the Game Rating Total and 1.1 to the Game Value Total; Current NPI is now 82.733413 / 1.1 = 75.212194, and Counted Wins is now 1.1.
Otterbein: (82.733413 + 67.577157) / (1.1 + 0.9) = 75.155285 < 75.212193, but since Counted Wins + 1.1 <= 5, add the values to the totals anyway; Current NPI is now 150.31057 / 2 = 75.155285, and Counted Wins is now 1.1 + 0.9 = 2
Marietta: (150.31057 + 80.344574) / (2 + 1.1) = 74.404885 < 75.155285, but again, Counted Wins + 1.1 <= 5, so add the values to the totals; Current NPI now 230.655144 / 3.1 = 74.404885, and Counted Wins is now 2 + 1.1 = 3.1.
Muskingum: (230.655144 + 65.558238) / (3.1 + 0.9) = 74.053346 < 74.404885, but Counted Wins + 1.1 <= 5, so add the values to the totals; Current NPI is now 296.213382 / 4 = 74.053346, and Counted Wins is now 3.1 + 0.9 = 4.
Heidelburg: (296.213382 + 78.926277) / (4 + 1.1) = 73.556796 < 74.055346;
since Counted Wins < 5 but Counted Wins + 1.1 > 5, multiply the Game Rating and Game Value by (5 - 4) / 1.1 = 1 / 1.1; add 78.926277 x (1 / 1.1) = 71.651611 to the Game Rating Total, and 1.1 x (1 / 1.1) = 1 to both the Game Value Total and the Counted Wins value.
Current NPI is now (296.213382 + 71.651611) / (4 + 1) = 73.592909, and Counted Wins is now 4.1 + 1.1 x (1 / 1.1) = 5.
The remaining five games would all have Current NPI reduced if they were added to the totals, and since Counted Wins = 5, they are skipped.
Since there are no losses to check, Mount Union's final rating for round 1 is 73.592909.
Previous - Step 4 - Determine Game Ratings
Next - Step 6 - Check Losses